October 23, 2021

The Queens County Citizen

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Donald Trump: A number of records have strong opinions about the President

Donald Trump: A number of records have strong opinions about the President

Trump’s path to victory will probably depend on defining Biden through negative advertising. What is far from clear is whether it will work.

Today, most voters feel very strongly about Trump. We can see this in a poll asking voters whether they have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unprofitable or very unfavorable view. If you average polls from late March onwards Grinnell College / Selzer and Company, Fox News and Monmouth University, 27% of voters have a very good view of Trump and 42% have a very unfavorable view of him.

All said, 69% of voters have a very good or unfavorable view of the President.

That 69% is biggest at this point in the electoral cycle since pollsters began asking questions of this type in 1980. The previous record was Trump in the 2016 campaign, when 65% of voters had excellent Trump opinions both favorable and unfavorable. 64% of the same electorate had a very favorable or unfavorable view of George W. Bush during his reelection battle in 2004. No other presidential candidate reached 55%, which only tells you how Trump politically polarized.

Now, compare Trump’s figures with Biden’s numbers this year in the same poll. Relatively low 46% (compared to Trump) say they have strong opinions about Biden. Damaged, that includes 18% very profitable and 28% very unprofitable.

In other words, voters are 23 points less likely to have a stronger position at Biden than at Trump. There is far more room to bring down Biden than to increase Trump.

Even if Trump is able to move the needle a little, it can be a big problem. Trump’s deficit to Biden only averages around 6 points nationally.

In other words, Trump’s campaign strategy makes perfect sense.

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However, something that makes sense and something that actually works are two very different things.

The selection at which the incumbent goes is usually about the incumbent. In the polls we have seen so far this election, voter choice is highly correlated with feelings towards Trump, not Biden. Trump won around 90% of voters who had positive opinions about him, because Biden took around 90% who had unfavorable views about Trump. This is a very different story from 2016 when Hillary Clinton won less than 80% of those who didn’t like Trump.

The fact that so many voters have a strong view of Trump can tell us something about the course of this race going forward. Biden’s 6 point advantage in the polls is quite stable. There is no guarantee that the poll will remain that way, but history shows that it is very good.

How Trump has violated the poll

Since 1980, elections in which results have dramatically differed from the current polls tend to occur when the opinion of the old president is not strongly held. The two incumbent elections (1980 and 1992) where the difference between the current poll and the results is greater than 5 points is where only about a third (33%) of voters have very good or unfavorable opinions from voters. incumbent.

Biden's invisible campaign wins

Now, look at elections where the power of opinion about the president looks the most like this: 2004 and 2012. They were the only ones before this election where more than 50% had strong opinions about incumbents at the moment. The election saw the smallest shift (3 and 2 points, respectively) between the current poll and the results.

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Trump, of course, is trying to avoid polls remaining stable by shifting focus to unclear Biden. Again, that’s not a bad idea. But while Biden’s opinions are less powerful than Trump’s, they are strong enough relative to past challengers. No other challenger (including John Kerry in 2004 and Mitt Romney in 2012) since 1980 has had many voters who gave them very favorable or very unprofitable ratings.

That is, it will be easier to move opinions about Biden than Trump, but that does not mean that it will be simple or even effective.