Saturday, September 12, 2020, 9:06 am – As the Atlantic hurricane season peaks this month, the Basin continues to clear storms and disruptions, keeping forecast indicators busy.
Many forecasters backed ict Atlantic hurricane season above average, And proved to be correct, the multi-named storms were the first in their letter.
As September is the peak month of the hurricane season, Atlantic is full of activity – with signs of development over the next five days ranging from tropical cyclones to palettes and hurricanes near the Gulf of Mexico and the West African coast.
Current Atlantic hurricanes
Tropical activity continues with two hurricanes, Palette and Rene. Saturday is expected to be a hurricane for a while as the previous one continues towards Bermuda.
As of Saturday morning, National Hurricane Center The pallet is currently 955 kilometers southeast of Bermuda, packing high winds close to 110 km / h, with high gases. Palette is expected to make landfall on Saturday.
“The palette is moving near 16 mph (26 km / h) in a northwesterly direction. Expect west-northwest or northwesterly motion at slightly slower speeds over the weekend, then turn northwest and northwest on Monday and Monday evening. Palette center Sunday night and near Bermuda on Monday Is expected to move, “the NHC said.
Hurricane watch and tropical storm warning are in effect for Bermuda, with forecasts warning of 50-100 mm of rainfall, with a total of 150 mm isolated.
Rene, at the same time, continues to weaken. It is currently 2,095 km east-northeast of the North Leeward Islands. Its maximum stable winds are stable at 65 km per hour, with high gases. A small change in strength is expected over the weekend, but some weakening is expected early next week.
“Rene is moving near 14 mph (22 km / h) in a northwesterly direction and this normal movement is expected to continue to this day. Slow northwesterly movement is expected from the northwest on Sunday and Monday,” the NHC said.
Tropical depression nineteen Naples, 90 km southeast of Flake and moving west near 15 km per hour. Saturday may shift some time for the west-northwest movement. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move over the southeastern and eastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday and Sunday, followed by Sunday night and Monday trekking over the north-central Gulf of Mexico.
Maximum steady winds are near 55 km per hour, with high gases. As the center moves over the Gulf of Mexico and by Saturday night the recession is expected to turn into a tropical cyclone, gradually intensifying on Sunday and Monday. If it turns into a tropical storm, it will be named Sally.
A tropical cyclone is in effect for some areas of the Florida Panhandle.
50-100 mm of rainfall, up to a total of 150 mm, is expected in western-central and southern Florida, including the Florida Keys, until Sunday.
Other Atlantic Distributions
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, NHC forecasters are closely watching for growth over the next five days.
The first is the surface collapse over the north-central Gulf of Mexico. Some slow development of the system is possible as it moves westward over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico in the middle of next week, and then southwest. The chances of growth in the next five days are 30 percent.
On the eastern side of the Atlantic, a wide area of low pressure is several hundred kilometers southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, producing an area of chaotic showers and thunderstorms. The development of this system is forecast and a tropical depression is expected in the next two days, but the system will move over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. The chances of growth in the next five days are 90 percent.
Also, many models exacerbate these particular disturbances as a large hurricane, taking the track westward toward the Caribbean.
Near the Cabo Verde Islands, another area of turbulent weather associated with the tropical wave is the focus of forecasts. A tropical depression will form over much of the Eastern Tropical Atlantic early next week, but the system will slowly move westward. The chances of growth in the next five days are 60 percent.
Why choose activity in September?
We see more frequent tropical systems with longer lifespan and greater intensity in September due to some factors.
At this time of year, we experience summer heat, and the oceans are generally warmer than the early months of the season. Warm waters fuel tropical systems, allowing for greater movement over water, resulting in tropical systems with strong thunderstorms.
Another thing that comes into play is that we usually have less wind shear in this year’s model. The jet stream is weak during the summer months and the windshield fades in June and July, while it is almost non-existent in August and September. This is not a good thing, because wind shear can help weaken tropical systems.
When forecasters warn of an “above average” season, they speak entirely in terms of named hurricanes, and none of these predictions generally make any arguments for the severity of the storms. In fact, so far the 2020 season has only produced one major hurricane – i.e. Category 3 or more – in the form of Hurricane Laura, which reached Category 4 before the U.S. Gulf Coast was affected by severe winds and the last hurricane. Month.