A new variant of the coronavirus found in the United Kingdom is actually “50% to 74%” more contagious, according to a study posted online on Thursday that raises concerns about the number of deaths associated with Kovid and the number of hospitals in the UK-19.
“Based on the preliminary data available”, the study suspects that the variant of SARS-Cove-2 may have been the source of a significant increase in the number of cases in southeastern England in recent years. Weeks “can transmit 50% to 74% more” than the species currently in circulation (56% on average in the relevant three regions), says Nick Davis, biologist and tropical medicine (LSHTM) at the London School of Hygiene.
The estimate, which has not yet been published in a scientific journal or analyzed by independent experts, is in line with “50% to 70%” submitted by other researchers and members at a press conference on Monday. From the UK Government Advisory Group on Emerging Respiratory Viruses, NERVTAG.
The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Boris Johnson last week triggered a 70% high epidemic, and British officials sent an estimate of transmission to the World Health Organization (WHO) based on preliminary data from the genetic sequence of viruses collected in London and the country’s sixty to 40% .
This variant, called VOC 202012/01, was first discovered in Great Britain in September and has 22 mutations on its gene. In particular, the spike of the coronavirus, called N501Y, is at the protein level, a point on its surface that allows human cells to penetrate them, thus playing a key role in viral infection.
A quarter of new infections detected in affected areas in November were associated with this variant in early November, an increase of more than 60% in early December. And “if the current trend continues, the new variant will represent 90% of cases by mid-January,” said Nick Davis.
LSHTM researchers “have not yet found any evidence that people who shrink the new variant have a higher risk of hospitalization or death.” But even in a stable accident, they believe that a “sharp increase” in the number of cases caused by this mutation can have significant consequences on the outcome of the infection.
They warn that the recent increase in the number of infections “in many areas” could “continue and spread to all parts of the UK without rapid action”.
By adhering to pre-December 19 restriction measures, their models concluded that “the number of hospital admissions and deaths due to Kovid-19 will reach a higher level in 2021 than is observed in 2020.”
British authorities decided on additional measures last weekend with the reconstruction of London and part of the country.
But according to the authors of the study, the vaccine campaign needs to be “significantly accelerated” and schools need to close in January “to significantly reduce the health record”.