Infectious disease experts say the number of infections may actually be much higher than official statistics. Although testing today is more common than in the early months of the epidemic, many people who have never seen symptoms before may not have tested or tested.
Ira Longini, a professor of biostatistics at the University of Florida, estimates that 20% of Americans are infected with the virus – more than double the number reported. The statistical modeling he recently completed for Florida indicates that one-third of the state’s population was infected at some point, more than four times the reported share.
National coordination is needed He said the study went beyond modeling expectations and had a strong understanding of the number of people actually infected with the virus. He said the CDC was doing some serological tests but they were not enough to provide a complete picture.
“Ultimately, we don’t know, but we can catch up through the fashion show,” Dr. Longini said.
The ratio varies significantly from place to place. In Dewey County, SD, one in four tested positive, but only one in 200 in San Juan County, Washington.
The highest number reported U.S. in relation to their residents. Metropolitan areas are located in the south or southwest, where the virus has recently spread rapidly, but some are in areas such as the Grandes plains that were worse during the fall. Top five Yuma, Arizona; Gallup, New Mexico; Bismarck, ND; Lubbock and Eagle Pass, Texas.
Metropolitan areas with the most new cases per person over the past two weeks reflect the same trend and also underscore the severity of the outbreak in California. These areas are Laredo and Eagle Pass in Texas; Inland Empire, California; Jefferson, J .; And Oxnard, California.
In recent months, more than one million people in Los Angeles County, one of the nation’s hotspots, have tested positive for the virus. George Rutherford, professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at the University of California, San Francisco, estimates that the number of infections actually doubles to one in five angels.
“It’s not good enough for herd immunity, but it’s good enough to smooth the curve,” he said.