He was probably right here. Despite the global vaccine campaign, many scientists and health experts agree that Kovid-19 should not appear in the coming months. According to Andrea Ammon, director of the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), it is “more likely to stay”. The coronavirus that causes the disease appears to be, she said, “well suited to humans. So we need to be prepared for what’s left of us.”
One trend, confirmed by epidemiologist Martin Blachier, was interviewed by La Depeche: “The flu virus does not go away, it does not cause a cold. It can probably not go away because it can escape the immune system through mutation,” he explained.
According to him, the appearance of the variants (British, South African and finally Brazilian) is a proof of this. The disease does not go away overnight. So we have to learn to live with it.
However, do not worry, according to Martin Blatchier: “In a short time, we will receive vaccines, follow our testing strategies, and the immunity we gradually acquire from different species will be able to coexist with this virus, causing less and less severe forms of the disease. “
The coronavirus called SARS-CoV2 should therefore not be so severe for years. It must go from an epidemic state to a local state and spread like a permanent seasonal disease.
According to National Geographic, the virus can turn into a mild childhood illness after a few years or even a few decades, contributing to the common cold like the four human coronaviruses already known.
This transition will definitely take a few years to happen. According to scientists, three factors are crucial in defining the post-pandemic trajectory of the disease: the duration of our immunity to the virus, the rate at which it develops, and the proportion of the elderly population who acquired immunity during the epidemic.
Decisive vaccine campaign
To end the epidemic nature of Kovid-19, we need to achieve a high level of immunity, especially among the elderly and the most vulnerable. For this, in order to achieve mass immunity, at least 60 to 70% of the population must be immunized. Immunity can be acquired in two ways: by exposure to the virus (contamination with Kovid-19) or by vaccination. The success of the vaccine campaign, on a global scale, is much needed to get out of this epidemic phase.
It also refers to long-term monitoring of the evolution of the virus, which, as Dr. Martin Blachier explains, has the potential to “escape immunity through mutation”. The vaccine should therefore be adjusted regularly to be effective in the context of new strains of the disease.
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