The question plagues the conservative factions: Can the Maxim Bernier party spend the slow progress Monday on the Erin O’Toole seats, the general split-vote scenario?
The Right Journal Toronto Sun. Friday echoed those fears. On its front page is a photo montage of Maxim Bernier wearing the Justin Trudeau crown. “Vote Bernier. Get Trudeau,” the headline read.
So can the People’s Party of Canada (PPC) conservatives lose power by splitting the right-wing vote?
The question is not so simple, according to Polsters. According to Sounds, they do not agree on the PPC support level, which oscillates between 4 and 8% nationally.
“Reluctant to minimize what is happening, the problem now is that PPC is popular where the Conservatives have the overwhelming majority,” said Christian Bork, executive vice president at Lager.
Of the riders who won by 15,000 votes, they won by 10,000 votes. PPC does not yet have the maturity to change color seats.
Christian Bork, Executive Vice President at Lager
Founded in 2018, PPC received only 1.6% of the vote in 2019. This time, it could overtake the Green Party, with 3 or 4% of the vote.
Pollers therefore realized a trend, some enthusiasm for this party against health measures. But this training is increasingly popular in Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta and southwestern Ontario.
“If the craze turns to Ontario, many two- or three-way races will be turned upside down,” Christian Bork believes.
Who are his members?
Political analyst Eric Grenier believes the Conservatives are likely to lose “some seats” as the PPC rises. In an intimate fight, it can be decisive.
However, according to him, we must be careful: 4 to 9% of the vote was cast for the Maxim Bernier party, not the most “stolen” votes from the Conservative Party of Canada (PCC).
“These voters include people who have not voted for a long time, green people, former liberals, and even progressives against the vaccine,” said the author of the political analysis site. “Most of these voters may be Conservatives, but certainly not all.”
The popularity of PCP in Ontario is also critical. Christine de Clercy, associate professor of political science at the University of Western Ontario, recalls that Maxim Bernier held several important meetings in the province.
“A thousand people attended the rally in Ailmer, which was impressive. It was a show of strength,” M notesTo me De Clercy talks about a town called Ailmer in southern Ontario.
For some frustrated conservatives, the idea of losing CCP seats may even be appealing.
Many conservatives are dissatisfied with the Conservative Party’s rethinking under Erin O Tool.
Christine de Clercy, Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Western Ontario
Eric Grenier reads similarly: It is easy to say that Maxim Bernier’s party divides the birth vote.
“It’s not just the PPC that exists, it’s the Conservatives who are losing votes.