December 3, 2021

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The abyss to be filled in hopes of limiting global warming to +1.5 ° C | COP26 – Glasgow Climate Change Conference

The abyss to be filled in hopes of limiting global warming to +1.5 ° C | COP26 - Glasgow Climate Change Conference

Despite new commitments from more than 120 countries registered as of September 30, the Paris Agreement is required to comply with the goal of limiting global warming to less than +2 ° C, preferably above +1.5 ° C. Important, The United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) concludes its report released on Tuesday.

So new promises Reduce emissions estimates by 7.5% by 2030[une baisse de] 30% is required for + 2 C and 55% for 1.5 C.

Apparently, this is a reduction Must be four times higher for +2 C and about eight times longer for +1.5 C, One of the authors of the report explains to AFP Anne Ohloff.

There is progress […], But we are far from where we should be.

A quote from:Anne Ohloff, one of the authors of the report

The first Nationally Nominated Contributions (NDCs) The 200 or so signatories to the Paris Agreement have led the world toward warming to +3 or 4 C.

The world is now moving towards warming to at least + 2.7 C, as new NDCs filed by 143 countries and major savings guarantees such as China by 2030 have not yet been formalized.

In addition to NDCs outlining short-term goals, 49 states representing 57% of global emissions have also officially adhered to carbon neutrality by the middle of the century. [une majorité pour 2050, quelques-uns pour 2060 ou 2045].

These commitments make it possible to plan an additional half degree and therefore reach +2.2 C, the report said.

Warnings

But researchers are warning of the dangers of exceeding these expectations.

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First, they assume that the commitments will be fulfilled, but many of the previous commitments are still unfulfilled. So, as a group, the G20 countries are not on track to meet their previous NDCs. When it comes to strategies for carbon neutrality, they are Waves.

And other signs of concern. After emissions fell by 5.4% in 2020 due to the Kovid-19 epidemic, there is a possibility of a significant recovery in 2021 and states have not used the opportunity of recovery plans to accelerate the green transition, with only 17 to 19% of these investments. Emissions are likely to be reduced, the report said.

In the foreground, a melting glacier.  In the background, a stream of large pieces of ice.

The planet has warmed more than one degree since pre-industrial times.

Photo: Radio-Canada / Franకోois Gagnon

In addition, scientists’ estimates are based on probability.

The report estimates that there is a 66% chance of not exceeding +2.2 C. But in a similar scenario, there is By the end of the century the probability of warming above + 2.5 ° C and slightly less than 5 + more than + 3 ° C is more than 15%.

It’s scary, which further emphasizes the need to go as low as possible.

A quote from:Anne Ohloff, one of the authors of the report

Especially since the pre-industrial era with almost +1.1 ° C already multiplying weather disasters ranging from heat waves that already destroy the planet to floods, every part of the degree of warming is calculated.

For the possibility of limiting global warming to +1.5 C, we have eight years to halve greenhouse gas emissions: eight years to formulate plans, implement policies, and finally achieve those cuts. Time is running out dangerously, UNEP boss Inger Anderson said in a statement.

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Fossil forces

Eight years to reduce annual emissions by 28 gigatons [mesurées en équivalent CO2] By 2030, according to the report, current commitments will equate them to just four gigatons of CO2. And CO2 emissions alone are projected to reach 33 gigatons in 2021.

One of the keys to action to reduce emissions is the removal of fossil fuels, especially pollution. But another UNEP report last week showed that global estimates for coal, oil and gas production were more than double compared to limiting warming to +1.5 C.

The world needs to wake up because of the danger that threatens us as a nation, Argues Inger Anderson.