10:45 pm, November 20, 2021
This is one of the things that sees the infection. Vittoria Collizza, director of research at Inserm (Pierre Lewis Institute of Epidemiology, Inserm / Sorbonne University), which is developing new models, promised that more routine tests at school would help reduce the number of infections. She is in favor of injecting everyone a third dose of the vaccine immediately. “We can not wait any longer, there is no longer any reason to give preference to such and such age group!”, She explains.
Does the acceleration of the epidemic in France surprise you?
No, the fifth wave was not unexpected. Winter temperatures and humidity are favorable for the transmission and transmission of the virus. Our behavior changes inward, where the risk of contamination by aerosols increases. France, Italy and Spain have a slow and slow wave compared to other European countries.
How would you describe it?
This is tied to our relatively high vaccine coverage, but with favorable climatic conditions in the south compared to the countries in the north, the spread is much faster. Another factor, the most important: the fact that all summer is kept pass. Some countries, such as Denmark, have abandoned vaccinations and other health measures. In Great Britain, the situation is awkward with a high but consistent rate of events, such as other indicators (hospitalizations and deaths), but preventive measures have been lifted. But a portion of the population continues to televise.
People under the age of 12, who have no access to vaccination, currently have a large population for the spread of the virus.
Is the number of cases still a relevant compass?
Yes, in order to understand whether the difference between the number of cases and the curve of the number of those admitted to the hospital varies, probability monitoring along with other indicators should be continued. On the one hand, the vaccine widens the gap; On the other hand, increased infection of the virus is pushed in the opposite direction. Although the vaccine helps prevent infection, the Delta variant is twice as contagious as the strain from last winter and is almost twice as likely to develop a severe form of the disease.
What do your latest predictions say?
We are in the process of updating our models. This is complicated by the fact that there are a number of variables: vaccine coverage, its rhythm, the first dose to be introduced and the first estimates of the vaccine’s impact reduction against infection over time …
With more than 4,000 closed classes, is the school the driving force behind the spread of the virus?
In general, statistics on viral circulation in establishments are underestimated. Class closures only indicate what we see and we see less! Most of the time, children are asymptomatic or have symptoms that are very difficult to detect. People under the age of 12, who have no access to vaccination, currently have a large population for the spread of the virus. Thanks to our models and by analyzing the screening data in establishments during the third wave, we have highlighted the high level of transmission in schools, which contributes to the viral circulation in the community. During the third wave, closures such as school holidays also proved to slow the epidemic. According to the models, when you test regularly at school, you reduce the average number of school days missed per student as well as the number of cases. This is a very strong preventive measure.
As seen in some neighboring countries, a wave of significant cases has been estimated
Are hospitals at saturated risk?
This is the big question. Dynamics and level of hospitalization are indicators to be monitored to keep any new limits. Especially with the nearly two years of pandemic fatigue and possible winter waves of the flu. But we can not give a clear answer, we have to wait for the next mathematical predictions. As seen in some neighboring countries, a wave of significant cases has been estimated. The greater the difference between the two curves depending on the vaccine level followed by the number of hospital admissions.
Austria is reconfiguring, Germany is taking tough measures. Will France escape the new sanctions?
Can’t say how the health impact will be during the peak. But we have many tools to avoid getting there and respond to this wave. Starting with the third dose, “booster”. From an infection standpoint, it is imperative to exploit it, as this recall will help to “push” the defense against infection. Developed against the Wuhan breed, the vaccine is very effective against severe forms after infection with the delta variant, which did not win. It also reduces the risk of developing infectious and pathological forms. But recent results show us that this efficacy against infection is low due to variation and decreases over time after the second dose. Hence the interest of the third injection.
Do you immediately support this “booster” for everyone?
Yes, we can not wait any longer, there is no reason to give preference to such and such age group! We no longer have a supply or administration problem like at the beginning of the campaign. The “booster” works in prevention: it increases the effectiveness of the vaccine against infection so that the person infected with the virus is less likely to be infected. We also need to reduce viral circulation in the population to reduce hospital admissions. Reminder is a barrier measure to coordinate with vaccination coverage and prevent infection.
If the vaccine is safe and effective for children, it may help slow viral circulation in the general population.
With 87% of people over the age of 12 vaccinated, have we reached the glass ceiling?
The problem is, whether they are “serious” rivals, if they postpone, if they do not have a vaccine available … we have to go and get some part of this population. And it transmits the virus. Even if you only reach a part of it, it still has an impact. Because if the vaccine effect against severe forms is very high, it is not 100%. With a very large number of people infected mathematically, we regret admitting more to the hospital.
What are the other weapons?
Obstacle gestures – even though we can understand the French’s fatigue! We still have some difficult months ahead of us. We know these unpleasant rules, and they should be tightened: they are very important breaking actions, which avoid other more restrictive ones. In addition to the sanitary pass, keep the mask on until dining in theaters, cinemas, and restaurants. Airing the premises can be very difficult in the winter, but very effective and often forgotten. And of course, televerking is a simple lever that works even when there are no other restrictions.
Should we give immunity to children like Israel or the United States?
As clinical studies on a few thousand children are currently underway, the European Agency is assessing the safety of the vaccine for them. Real life data coming soon from the United States. If this vaccine proves to be safe and effective for children, it may help to slow down viral circulation in the general population.