Finance Minister Eric Girard reiterated Wednesday that Quebec has a one in three chance of a recession in the coming months.
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“The most likely scenario is a slowdown in the economy and not a recession,” Mr. Girard said, trying to estimate the chances of a slowdown at 67% versus 33% for those in recession.
The minister put forward the same prognosis in mid-June, but he predicted a 25% chance of a recession in the spring. However, its leader, Prime Minister Francois Legault, said in mid-June that there was a one-in-two chance that Quebec would slide into recession.
The latter also saw the inflation rate hit 7.7% in May – the highest level since January 1983 – before beginning to decline in June.
Remember that economists generally consider a state to be in recession when gross domestic product has declined for two consecutive quarters.
Mr Girard is due to present an update on the government’s finances on August 15. Meanwhile, all indications are that the Bank of Canada will once again raise its key rate by 0.5 or 0.75.
“What we notice is that central banks are in a hurry to move from a situation where the level of interest rates is stimulating to the economy. We want to go to a neutral level between 2.5 and 3% and we are going there by the end of the year,” said Mr Girard.
“It’s enough and the economy is likely to land softly,” the finance minister added, but promised that coalition Avenir Quebec would propose measures during the election campaign to help families affected by rising prices. Costs of many products.