November 28, 2022

The Queens County Citizen

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4 CH aspirants are underestimated according to recognized statistical model

4 CH aspirants are underestimated according to recognized statistical model

The Montreal Canadiens’ glut of prospects in particular has stood out not so much for its quality as its quantity from recent years. In the next generation, many aspire to a spot in the NHL in the near future.

Gone are the days when fans could only get their teeth into Nikita Scherbach, Jared Tinordi, Nathan Beaulieu and Alouette. With such a volume of aspirants, it is easy for some of them to slip under the radar despite having good profiles.

In this spirit, TVASports.ca reached out to an expert in advanced statistics specializing in NHL prospects, Byron Bader, to look into four underrated members of the next generation of Habs.

Bader designed a A model subscribed to by 20 teams on the Bettman circuit. Said model works as follows: Bader uses calculations to determine the value of a point in each league to level the playing field in evaluating prospects. He gives birth to his magic data, NHL Equivalence Points; Roughly, the value of player X’s production in his junior league in the National League.

Based on a sample of 7,000 players (dating back to 1990), the model determines X’s probability of reaching the NHL for a given year as well as his probability of becoming a star player. In short, if the past is a guarantee of the future, for example, what will a player typically become 20 years after his draft or 30 years after his selection?

Designed relatively far for some aspirants of CH, the result is quite interesting.

Lane Hutson

2nd round pick in 2022 (62nd overall).

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Right-handed defenseman, 5’9″, 148 lbs.

Boston University (NCAA)

Montreal…