2020 elections: overly optimistic Democratic pollsters

Since yesterday, sites like POLITICO or The Hill have shown interest in the test of conscience. Five of the leading Democratic pollsters.

Why are Democrats now wondering about these practices when they control the White House, House and Senate? Quite simply because we got better results overall than we expected.

Polsters are producing na-kulpa these days, mainly because the Democratic losses in the House are hurting, when the majority is expected to rise. This frustration should be closer than the success that Joe Biden achieved in Electoral College. A total of 43,000 votes were cast in Georgia, Wisconsin and Arizona.

It is not clear what could be improved to produce more embarrassing – or shocking – more realistic numbers for the Big Five. We are pointing in the direction of some vague indicators, but it is unlikely that they will be considered short-term solutions.

Among the indicators in question were the inability to reach a certain number of voters, especially those who voted for Donald Trump. The statistics are very accurate when we are able to reach voters; The problem is reaching all in sufficient numbers.

This way the polesters find themselves in front of a wall. It is very difficult to express the views of those who do not express themselves and flee from polling stations. We can always experiment by linking the correction calculation to the estimates. If we can improve the results a little, the possibility of overestimating the solutions is also very real.

Whether in 2016 or 2020, multiple polling stations were ignited by criticism and they are well aware of it. Expect a lot of investment to regain some credibility.

To demonstrate their will, but to their disappointment, the five pollsters said at the end of their joint statement that bringing them home should be considered a tactic to reach voters and that they were ready for all indications. We are there. And maybe a little tired …