Health conditions: Data data

“Very worried.” As the qualifier becomes a gloomy tune with each new epidemic, the “A lot” This week the bulletin of the Public Health France (SPF) is full of employee meaning. After almost a year of health crisis, two arrests and several arrests, the most transmissible variations in the territory – especially the British – could take the country into an unprecedented episode and in this case the health situation will no longer exist. “Same story”, In the words of epidemiologist Daniel Levy-Bruhl, head of the respiratory infection unit at SPF. “Currently, the effective R 1.1. This means that cases are doubled once every forty to fifty days. But this doubling corresponds to a situation where time variations do not spread. Unfortunately this is not the scene we like today ”, Another Defense Council around the President of the Republic and an expert during a situation update on Friday a few hours before the Prime Minister’s television intervention in the evening said (Read page 3).

“Trend”. According to the latest consolidated data from Part 1 of the Flash Investigation, the British variant reported 3.3% Kovid-19 cases in early January. What has happened since then? Launched on Wednesday, the second part should provide the first diagnostic results in a few days called PCR tests “Disagree” – That is, it emits a signal indicating that it is a variant. “Every evening, we hold a telephone conference to take stock of the more than 150 laboratories involved in the project and see where things are. But it is too early to issue a credible trend, The survey coordinator, Bruno Lena, informed the virologist and a member of the scientific council. We hope the data will be available on Monday and we will verify by ordering by the end of next week. ”

Intermediate statistics have been developed elsewhere, but there is a list “Not partial and representative of the actual transmission of the variant”, SPF, director of infectious diseases at Bruno Coinard insisted Friday. On Tuesday, AP-HP doctors announced that they were representing 10% of cases found in Il-de-France over a two-week period (6.9% confirmed on January 7 and 8 by a survey flash of the area). On Wednesday, a group of private laboratories said that this variant of Eurofins was associated with 14% of their positive tests in లేle-de-France. At a press conference on Thursday, Oliver Warren took up the matter by pointing it out “More than 2 thousand patients per day” Without specifying where this information was found, it is now infected with a new variant in France. “This data reflects reality. The question is to actually know what it is. […] Because they must be based on the appointment of laboratories, Avoid Bruno Coinard. It really does integrate a lot more and more comprehensive data through flash surveys, which allows you to have an accurate view. »

One thing is for sure, it is already well established: if the English variant becomes the majority without any measure to slow its circulation, the effective R may rise to 1.65 and lead to a doubling of the Kovid cases by only eight days. Disaster scene for Daniel Levy-Bruhl, but improbable. “We will never let this happen. We have already started to be sensitive in many places in terms of hospital capacity. A small increase in R will trigger very strong actions as you correctly understand.”

Step back. Epidemiological indicators are on the ridge line. Because the high plateau, which drew different curves in November from the summit of the second wave, is now “Total”, The health minister insisted on Thursday. An average of 20,000 positive cases are diagnosed in recent days. “When we see the trend, it’s up 10% per week, on average, three weeks,” he said. Exposed Véran. For three months active, the health system has been under increasing pressure in recent weeks: 11,155 new hospitals were announced for the SPF during the week from January 18 to 24, up from 9,631 in the previous week and 8,872 in the first week of January. The same dynamic for daily intensive care admissions: 1,706 new admissions in the week of January 18, or + 20% and + 24% over the previous two weeks.

In light of the thirtieth day since the initial curfew was imposed at 6 pm and the fifteenth day of its normalization, the government felt that the move was not enough to deter Kovid. Analyzes published by Public Health France on Thursday indicate that he has only one “Limited effect” And cannot “Have an unfavorable development of infection”. Hence Jean Costex’s announcements to tighten entry and exit from the territory or to close large non-food shopping centers.

Anas Moran