Vaccinating everyone is unrealistic

In the ideal world, almost everyone should get their two doses quickly. With the most contagious variant of all, mass immunity is achieved at a high vaccination rate.

Well, how far do we have to go now that we have surpassed the 75% vaccination target of 12 years and older?⁽¹⁾ ?

When are we really satisfied? When do we allow young people to attend their classes without wearing a mask? To work as a team physically without slapping employees on the fingers? To enter the convenience stores even if customers have forgotten their mask?

Horacio Aruda has put forward a new rate of 95% for those aged 12 and over, viz. But is it realistic?

Persuading holdouts is very difficult and will probably take a long time to get there. Meanwhile, obedient people must return to the long-awaited normalcy.

The strategy of the authorities in the wake of Kovid-19 is to ensure that it meets the health system requirements above all else. The network has adequate staff, beds and ventilators for the care of COVID-19 patients without harming patients with other illnesses.

However, this goal was met. In recent days, hospitals have treated 100 patients with Kovid-19 in Quebec, 15 times less than in January 2021 or May 2020. Thanks to the vaccine, the proportion of hospital admissions is low due to the availability of reliable statistics.⁽²⁾.

What do you do with the Delta variant, can you tell me? Should we not fear that this variant, which has affected Quebec less than other regions, will explode in hospitalization?

To find out, I have already analyzed some of the countries severely affected by the fourth wave and delta variant, and have high vaccination rates (over 60% of their population received two doses).

Conclusion: In the United Kingdom, Spain, Portugal and Denmark, the recent increase in the number of Kovid-19 cases has not translated into a comparable increase in hospitalization. In contrast, the two curves do not follow each other for the first time since the outbreak began. The four charts I created from Our World in Data are very eloquent.

So we can expect it to be the same in Quebec and Canada at the beginning of the fourth wave.

Of course, the concerns remain. On Tuesday, the effectiveness of Pfizer and Moderna vaccines against the Delta variant in the United States increased from 91% to 66% in a U.S. study. It is not yet clear whether this loss of ability is explained by a variant or by a decrease in vaccine efficacy over time.

Moreover, in Israel, one of the first countries to achieve the highest vaccination rate, cases have risen sharply and hospitalization continues to follow the curve of cases, which is quite surprising.

Is it that the effect of the vaccine is declining or that the vaccine is being neglected? As the full vaccination rate has peaked at 55-60% since last May, there are still a lot of reconsiderers in Israel.

I’m a vaccine-friendly person, I repeat. And for primary-secondary and CEGEP teachers as well as for all university students, the passport is convenient.

But it seems unrealistic to me to target 95% of the vaccine or more, at least in a reasonable amount of time.

The barriers associated with this goal carry more and more weight over time, and its consequences on the proper functioning of society. Each additional percentage of the vaccine costs more per point.

If we were stagnant at 92%, for example, would people be forcibly vaccinated? I am of the opinion that 8% of those who are not vaccinated by catching the virus should be allowed to gain immunity. However, at this point, it costs less for the government and society to treat them than to vaccinate.

The rate of complete vaccination in those over 1-12 years of age exceeds 78% and for first-time vaccines it is more than 86%.

The proportion of cases of 2-hospitalizations is difficult to explain because the number of cases listed is the number of beds that occupy the hospital each day, on a given date. The fact is that it is representative of its downward trend.