Kovid maps and curves: the incidence no longer decreases, it is increasing segments

Science – for two months, day by day, rate in mainland FranceIncidence Of Kovid-19 Gradually declining from July Wave. But it stopped last week, max. This Friday, October 15, the number of daily cases increased slightly by 4 days.

This increase in coronavirus transmission is not uniform across the territory. Of the 45 segments, pollution figures are rising in a week, which can be seen Cards And the Kovid-19 curves produced The Huffpost And in detail below.

However, we should not fear big, because most of the indicators in the metropolitan territory are currently green. More than 50 cases a week occur to 100,000 residents in just 13 departments. In addition, hospital services are far from satisfactory. This table summarizes the key indicators for the segments where the incidence rate is increasing in a week.

Relative growth

The two maps below capture this situation nicely. The first shows the rate change (in percent) that occurs in a week. Making the department red will increase coronavirus transmission. Blue represents a dot in contrast.

The second card allows you to keep this growth in perspective. True, this event has more than 100 events in a single section called Loser. It only exceeded the warning limit of 50 in 12 other parts of the mainland of France.

With such a low incidence rate, it should be understood that a sudden increase in some segments may be recorded without first worrying. Thus even if the cluster is under control it can lead to a sudden increase especially in sparsely populated areas.

In Los Angeles, the most common occurrence is partial (See more details in our article dedicated to the situation in this section). Two clusters in primary schools led to a sudden increase in cases. However, the situation is under surveillance as cases have been reported in other age groups as well. Children who act as “reservoirs” can contaminate people of other ages, or the virus is more likely to spread, especially by lifting certain barriers and holding important meetings.

A similar pattern appears to be emerging in the crease, where it occurs 2200% a week for those under 10, but is also increasing in older communities.

The two graphs below allow us to examine the events that occurred during the week of different ages in each section and its evolution.

The situation in the hospitals is under control

As more winter temperatures approach in France we will have to wait several days to see how the situation changes to see if there is a real resurgence in infections.

At present, this increase is limited and has no effect on the hospital system: hospitalizations and intensive care units are stable and the occupancy rate is low.

In his latest models, Pasteur estimates the company Without the relaxation of the measures in place, the reproduction rate of the viruses would gradually increase with the cooling of the temperatures, but without causing a ripple in the strong hospital. Researchers have warned, however, that without easing sanctions too soon, it could lead to a more or less significant spike.

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