Trump and the Republican Division

Tuesday evening caught the attention of American political enthusiasts for a number of reasons.

Since we are already considering the Republican majority in both chambers of Congress, it was possible to highlight the candidates who will be scrapping primaries this coming November.

Notable indicators include an attempt to measure former President Trump’s popularity. The man who could return in 2024 did not hesitate to support many candidates and many results have been described as a measure of his influence.

In the analyzes and statistics made since Tuesday evening, I have focused specifically on observations By Keith Newton, a former Republican political adviser on the site Hill. His description of the results goes beyond just the win-lose column.

Newton noted that in the 2016 campaign and in yesterday’s results, there was a marked trend in the performance of candidates seeking Donald Trump or his imperfections. Most often, we win by using the division of votes.

The unfortunate trend

For example, the author recalls that during the Republican primaries before the 2016 presidential election, candidate Trump faced an incredible number of opponents. Many of them, especially Jeb Bush and John Kasich, hung out for a long time to slip into the reality star lead.

When we combine the support of Kasich and Bush in South Carolina, they conform to their winning margin of 45th place.^And President. When Bush learned his lesson and withdrew, Kasich refused to back down, contributing to Trump’s victories in nine states.

What we observed in 2016 looks set to repeat itself in 2022. For Donald Trump, yesterday’s results were mixed. Some defeats, but majority victories, were the most significant in the decisive state of Pennsylvania during the presidential election.

When we separate the successes, the phenomenon of 2016 stands out in particular. Newton sees many “John Kasich” splitting the vote. These artillery balls are a major obstacle for those who are likely to defeat a pro-Trump in a head-to-head confrontation.

Brittle foundations

With the exception of the results in Pennsylvania, candidates backed by the former president are struggling to get more than a third of the vote. We can legally say that there are cracks in the wall, without indicating that the “Trump effect” has waned or that Republicans will have bad surprises in November.

Newton’s point also reveals that beyond yesterday evening and next November’s election, the Trump clan will not be irreversible. If these Nazarenes could put their egos aside and put themselves on the side of the best candidate, the godfather of Mar-a-Lago could stumble.