Demographics: Immigration leads Canada to new quarterly record

Canada continues its momentum: the country experienced significant population growth of more than 430,635 (+1.1%) in the three months between July and September, reaching a record high in 1957 (+1.2%), but this time, with immigration as the driving force.

Statistics Canada figures immigration accounted for 96% of population growth last quarter, and more specifically, permanent residents such as work or study permit holders.

More specifically, of the 430,635 new people registered in the third quarter, Statistics Canada counted 107,972 immigrants and 312,758 new permanent residents, the largest since the data was recorded.

Quebec saw more modest growth with a population increase of 0.8% in the last quarter. Of the 72,857 new people in Quebec, between 1^er Between July and September 30, 72,349 immigrants and new permanent residents.

Canada, which passed the 40 million population mark in June, is once again on track for a record population growth year in 2023, after breaking the record for 2022.

“The total growth observed in the first nine months of 2023 in Canada’s population already exceeds the total growth in any other full-year period since Confederation in 1867, including 2022, the year of record growth,” the federal agency said.

However, these figures represent only a fraction of the Justin Trudeau government’s goals, which target 465,000 immigrants by 2023 (excluding permanent residents).

Immigration Minister Mark Miller recently set federal targets of 285,000 by 2024 and 500,000 by 2025.

Scotiabank vice-president Derek Holt warned that federal immigration policy could fuel inflation in the real estate, auto and trade sectors.

“Immigration is high, period,” he said in a brief statement. “The problem is that less housing is available [les immigrants] And it’s only going to get worse.”

For Desjardins, “a new quarter of unrestrained population growth in Canada continues to complicate the picture in terms of the country’s monetary policy.”

“Population gains based on net inflows of non-permanent residents pose risks to economic growth,” Desjardins said.

However, the firm is maintaining its forecast that the Bank of Canada will hold the key rate in January before cutting it mid-year.