Basic weekly forecast for natural gas prices

Short-term weather lo look

Most cooling temperatures are expected in the central United States, Natgasweather He said overall demand would remain strong in the week following Labor Day, which would be driven by “hot conditions over the western countries and very warm conditions” over the southern and eastern regions.

Brad Harvey, a senior meteorologist at Maxer’s Weather Desk, says summer 2020 will be the third hottest on record, until August 2020, when it will run on the hot side of normal high temperatures for 30 consecutive years between June 18 and August 2.

Although written by Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) amid the coronavirus epidemic, prices are largely dependent on sustained heat waves due to milder commercial fuel requirements and lighter US liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand.

Weekly forecast

“The market is struggling to suppress where there is fair value,” Bespoke said. “It’s very difficult for us to see a bullish case for an October contract. The container comes back in the picture because there is some risk.”

However, NGI said temperatures in the Midwest began to cool and despite widespread milder conditions in mid-September, the heat would spread to the western and eastern parts in late summer, boosting near-term demand.

“Given the time of year, in order for the needle to move significantly, the heat must be strong compared to normal,” Bespoke said.

LNG feed gas will also be a major concern until demand returns to pre-hurricane Laura levels. Feed gas flows to Sabine Pass and Cameron LNG export facilities in Louisiana are still close to zero. This is a very big concern, as increased exports are needed before demand to crank air conditioners if autumn temperatures are too low.

In other news, the EIA is calling for storage injections of more than 60 BCF when it reports next Thursday (September 10) and more will be built next week. Bespoke Weather Services sees construction of 62 BCF and 77 BCF per week, respectively. Jumps of this magnitude can restore concerns about fall control issues.

Finally, we can begin to see an increase in the number of tropical cyclones that are touching the peak of the hurricane season. I live in Florida so I take these hurricanes seriously. Some analysts like to mention hurricanes in their comments, which are part of the game that speculators are playing.

As of Sunday morning, there was no hurricane premium on the market. There are tropical disturbances in the Atlantic, but as we have seen with Hurricane Laura, they have no effect on prices unless they enter the Gulf of Mexico. Do not trust the hype that comes from other analysts. Not every hurricane affects natural gas prices so there is no need to comment on them every day until the National Hurricane Center makes an official forecast.

To examine all of today’s financial events, see our Financial calendar.