Joe Biden’s popularity is in good shape

As he reached the 100th day of his presidency, Joe Biden’s approval rating was at a level unmatched by his predecessor.

When he came to power in 1933, Franklin Delano Roosevelt promised his first 100 days package of unprecedented actions. He did not disappoint, and since then U.S. presidents have placed a lot of emphasis on their performance in the early days of their administration. Joe Biden arrives at the 100-day entry on Friday and he is idle. As far as popular support is concerned, it can be said to pass the exam.

Approximate clear majority

By observing the evolutionary curve of Joe Biden approval rate, three observations are clear. First, although there is some variation between surveys, the trend is relatively stable, with an approval rate of between 52.5% and 55.1% and a rejection rate of 34, 0% to 40.9%, according to the average of the surveys compiled. Five Thirty It.

This stability is usually different from a specific instability observed at the beginning of a command, which, among other things, can be explained by the greater polarity of the voters. Americans are more firmly rooted in their attitudes than they have been for a long time, and there is far less movement than ever before in these kinds of actions.

Second, the opinion is very favorable to Biden. If his endorsement rating is slightly lower than Barack Obama for the same period, George W. from Ronald Reagan. Many up to Bush have compared what recent presidents have received. This would be very useful for the current president.

Third, Biden’s approval rating is much higher than his predecessor at the start of his tenure. True, according to the Five Thirty Index, Donald Trump’s best approval score (47.8%, See here) Was damaged within its first week and dropped quickly to never go above 46%. In short, Biden’s approval rating is higher than Trump’s best rating.

Why is Biden so popular?

It would be satisfying to say that the main reason for Joe Biden’s popularity is that he is not Donald Trump. This is not wrong, but it is not all.

First, Biden does better with members of the opposition and independents than his predecessors. According to the election, support for Biden ranged from 87% to 95% among Democrats. This unanimous support comes as a surprise when you consider that supporters of the party’s left and Bernie Saunders are too lukewarm about rallying for Biden’s 2020 candidacy and that the party has a tradition of dissent. Do we remember that among Republicans Donald Trump has always failed to speak openly with his approval rating?

More credible references to the source of Biden’s endorsement can be found by examining the details of endorsement for each of the major centers of his presidency, especially the areas preferred by voters: the COVID – 19’s pandemic, economy and jobs. As a result a Ipsos Survey (April 15), approving biden performance for issues that people prioritize is the highest.

A similar trend was observed in another detailed survey conducted Pew Institute. In addition to giving Biden a 59% approval rating, Pew believes people are significantly more positive in assessing the administration’s performance in managing vaccine production and distribution. For the previous administration.

In terms of the $ 19,100 billion aid package approved without a single Republican vote in Congress, Pew sees a 67% approval rating, including 35% from Republicans.

The most problematic area for Biden is immigration. Illegal immigration continues to be a priority issue for the majority of the population and the performance of the Biden administration in this area is strictly determined by public opinion. It is not surprising that Republicans devoted much of their energy to highlighting the hardships the Biden administration faced on the southern border after the arrival of refugees, even before the new administration affected any changes in the region.

Avoid past mistakes

In general, the period of “honeymoon” experienced by a new president at the beginning of his term can be described as the desire of some opposition party legislators to join the new administration’s most popular agenda. At this point it was definitely not. The Republican speech in this regard is somewhat confusing. On the one hand, Republicans want Democrats to be bilateral, and on the other hand, all Republicans continue to oppose everything Democrats propose.

President Biden is doing very well in navigating this slum for some obvious reason. First, unlike his predecessor, the tone of his speech was still one of compromise. According to polls, the majority of Americans recognize that the political climate has improved significantly over the past 100 days. As news channels like Fox News are fueling divisions, this is still a long way to go.

Second, President Biden’s interventionist agenda is generally seen well in public opinion, and the White House Communications team seeks to focus on issues of priority in the public eye while avoiding pettiness. Indulges in pure ideological or partisan fights. In short, Biden’s communication strategy is to do what people ask and make it known to the public. In Biden’s words, the bilateral nature of the initiative can be better established by examining the will of the Republican people than by counting the votes of Republican legislators in Congress.

This leads to the very important reason behind Biden’s relative success to this day and many believe he will succeed in advancing his massive infrastructure program despite resistance from Republicans, so that many of his former boss Barack Obama’s comparable programs have failed.

Since Joe Biden is more of a politician than Barack Obama? Not necessarily, but it is certain that he learned from the subsequent mistakes. For example, when adopting a stimulus plan to deal with the crisis in 2009, Obama went out of his way to present a balanced program that had largely Republican priorities and deliberately dampened the enthusiasm of the democratic left. The result? Despite all the bends of the Obama administration, almost no Republican stimulus package has changed in favor.

Biden does not repeat this kind of mistake. In fact, he felt that Republicans in Congress would oppose everything he proposed, but he was sensitive to the demands of moderate Republican voters, knowing that if he delivered the goods, voters would be at Rendezvous.

As he demonstrated in the case of the COVID stimulus, Biden was determined to include some of the Republicans’ priorities in his plans, but without compromising his own party priorities in advance. Either way, to win all the Democratic votes in Congress he definitely needs to get something, especially from the so-called moderate senators, Biden must come up with a balanced plan that will appeal for the better part of Republican and independent voters.

Can Biden rise to great heights and support enough to consolidate his majority in Congress in 2022? It is too early to tell, but he is starting from a predictable position and if the United States defeats the pandemic for good and returns to the path of economic prosperity, this scenario cannot be ruled out.

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Pierre Martin is Professor of Political Science at the University of Montreal and Chair of the Chair of American Political and Economic Studies at CIRIUM.