The weaknesses of the Republicans are visible

Normally, Democrats would suffer a major defeat in November and lose control of both houses of Congress, but that’s not so common in American politics these days.

Historically, the president’s party loses seats in midterm elections. In addition, Biden’s approval rating is lagging behind in low water and economic pessimism is rampant.

In short, everything points to Republicans making convincing gains in November. But Tuesday’s primaries in five states suggest chinks in their armor.

Trump is a cannon ball

Although the Republicans have clear strengths, the polls are not overwhelmingly in their favor. Part of their woes stem from Donald Trump’s insistence on inserting himself into the political scene when voters want him to slip away.

Given the divisions among Republicans highlighted on Tuesday, it seems likely that candidates who identify strongly with Trump will lose support in the center, but if Trump mobilizes his supporters in a spirit of revenge against them, those who dare to oppose him may lose.

Trump’s obsession with exposing his big lie about the 2020 election will only hurt Republicans who want to turn the midterms into a referendum on Biden and inflation.

What’s more, some of Trump’s protégés (notably his Senate candidates in Pennsylvania and Georgia) are the foils to lose their party’s control of the upper house.

Abortion mobilizes

In Tuesday’s vote, we will especially remember the resounding defeat of anti-abortionists in Kansas. In this conservative state, although the right to abortion is enshrined in the Constitution, Republicans believe they can remove this right through a referendum.

They expected Democrats’ turnout to be low in the mid-summer primaries, but instead they inspired a significant mobilization of pro-choice voters and No won with nearly 60% of the vote, winning counties it usually won. Republicans.

The result bodes well for Democrats who want to rouse their voters from their torpor by making abortion a major battleground after the Supreme Court’s radical right turn on the issue.

Other lifebuoys

The midterm elections are less than 100 days away, giving Democrats time to seize a few more opportunities. One such possibility could be Republicans’ unforgiving opposition to legislation that would have guaranteed health care to thousands of veterans exposed to toxic fumes while on duty.

More generally, even if the economy remains unpredictable, a quick break in inflation will reduce voter dissatisfaction with Biden and the Republicans.

In this sense, the anti-inflation bill piloted by centrist Democratic Senator Joe Manchin would provide some wind in the Biden administration, while exposing Republican opposition to widely popular measures.

Given the midterm elections, Republicans remain the favorite, but the game is far from over.