2024: Hot questions become hot

You know me, I respect a lot of traditions.

In the world of media, we tell you what we're going to see in the coming year.

Everything revolves around two basic questions.

Can Justin Trudeau right the Liberal boat?

Progress of PQ: Flash in pan or not?

Trudeau

The prime minister can wait until 2025 before an election if the NDP continues to support him.

Objectively, things are going very badly for him.

Canadians are fed up with his evasiveness and his emptiness. The Liberals are turning to Mark Carney to convince him to replace him.

Poilievre

The conservative lead is significant.

Expertly, Poilievre steers clear of polarizing topics like immigration and talks about consensus topics like housing and inflation.

But Trudeau still has two trump cards in his game, and perhaps a third.

The economy will improve in 2024.

And he doesn't need more than 35% of the votes to stay in power.

He won with 32.6% in 2021 and 33.1% in 2019 (39.4% in 2015), and the liberal vote was better distributed than the conservative vote.

Perhaps its third property is south of the border.

Trump

If Trump were the Republican nominee and had a real chance of winning, Trudeau said there would be nothing worse than electing the Canadian version of the phenomenon.

It's cruel, you might say, but Justin Trudeau has never overestimated the intelligence of the electorate, and it's served him well.

PQ

PQ tops survey…three years before election.

He obviously doesn't complain about it.

It's growing among young people and in the Quebec region, something we haven't seen in ages.

If it owes much to the performance of its leader, it is also due to dissatisfaction with the CAQ.

When discontent benefits a single party, as is now the case, instead of spreading, people look for an alternative to the government.

But the PQ does not want to govern just one province. He wants freedom. However, support for it is steady.

Many Quebecers have said they will vote to bring the PQ to power and then vote in a referendum they want to hold.

Franchise

The old, old dilemma, seen a thousand times in the movie, can be navigated – if one has two cents of past knowledge – by playing fair: a vote for the PQ is a vote for a party that doesn't hide its cause. Being and trying to make it happen.

PLQ doesn't ask for anything better. He finds his only paying horse.

QS and CAQ experience terrible tensions.

Until then, if the PQ is in first place, all the classic questions will return in 2024 – all raised in the past, but the memory is too short – linked to the sovereignty project.