In the run-up to the election, Biden led Trump in four key states, poll shows

However, Trump’s enthusiasm among his supporters is a factor in the election. Linda Schup, of Halifax, PA, said she did not vote in 2016, but not because of a lack of priority: Trump supporter Ms Schup has arthritis and is struggling to get around. But as absentee voting becomes more widely available this year, she said she will vote for the president by mail.

“He has common sense,” Ms. Schup described him more directly than a longtime politician like Mr. Biden. The president, she said, “will not lie to you. If he says he’s going to do something, he’s going to do it. ”

If the president is defeated, his weakness with women could be a very obvious explanation. Mr Biden led Mr. Trump by two digits of women voters in every four states, and in some states the advantage is so significant that it replaces Mr. Trump’s strength among men.

In Arizona, for example, the president has an eight-point advantage over men, but Mr Biden is more favored by women, winning 56 percent of them compared to Mr. Trump’s 38 percent.

Another group leading Mr. Biden is the college-educated white electorate, traditionally the Republican Alliance, which fled the Trump era party. The former vice president has a two-thirds majority of white voters with college degrees in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Arizona, and lost 48 percent to 45 percent with that constituency in Florida.

In Maricopa County in Phoenix and its suburb of Ariz, Mr Biden is winning 48 per cent of the vote, compared to 42 per cent for Mr Trump, according to the survey. In 2016, Mr. Trump won the county by three points.

Mr Biden is poised to become the first Democrat in 20 years to carry elderly, high-risk voters with coronavirus. In Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, the former vice president is twice as likely as older voters. In Florida and Arizona, retirement paradises with wealthy and high-tax-phobic seniors are effectively tied to Mr. Trump winning both states in 2016 with Mr. Biden among older voters.

The president has been in controversy in Florida over his support from working-class whites and the gains he has made among Hispanic voters. He competes with Florida Latinos more than he did in 2016 and 9 percent of them are undecided.

Hispanic men in Florida in particular are increasingly willing to support Mr. Trump. The two candidates in the poll turned out to be almost equally divided, with Mr. Biden leading by just one point. But in Hispanic society the president faces the biggest gender gap of all: the Latinos support Mr Biden by 39 points.