A study warns that 71% of food production is at “extreme” risk by 2045

Future projections based on a 2°C warming scenario from 2045 compared to the pre-industrial era show that 64 countries representing 71% of global food production today will be affected by this “extreme risk”. .

Among them, the main agricultural producers – still India, but also China, Brazil and the United States.

“With rising global temperatures and heat stress, we will see production in more temperate countries affected,” said Will Nichols, director of climate and resilience at Verisk Maplecroft.

“There is a fear that people in rural areas that rely heavily on agriculture will be more exposed to these heat peaks in the future,” Nicholls told AFP.

AFP

With 12% of global food production in 2020, India is already the only major agricultural power in the “high risk” category and is therefore highly dependent on an abundant agricultural labor force.

Climate extremes therefore have consequences on productivity and indirectly affect the main economic balances of some countries, triggering crises with possible consequences on socio-political stability.

According to 2045 projections, nine of the 10 countries most at risk are in Africa, including Ghana, the world’s second largest cocoa producer.

AFP

The 20 most dangerous countries also include major Asian rice producers, Cambodia, Thailand or Vietnam. In the latter country, many farmers already work at night in rice fields to avoid excessive heat, the authors note.

In countries at risk, but with a large surface area, such as the United States or China, regions are affected differently.

Seven European countries are also among the 10 countries with the highest proportional growth by 2045.