Trump defectors help Biden build leads in Wisconsin and Michigan

Unlike in 2012, self-identified Republicans now outnumber Democrats in the Times / Siena elections in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, where the benefit of Democratic registration has been significant but has declined in recent months.

Instead, Mr. Biden leads with a high advantage among independent voters, who support him by 20 percentage points in both states.

While Mr Biden’s profits among white voters are widespread, extending to both college graduates and non-college graduates, he is far better paid than Mr. Obama did among white college graduates, the worst among those without a four-year degree. Consequently, Mr. Biden is still far behind on the precinct where he flipped from Mr. Obama to Mr. Trump, while a small number of those who supported Mitt Romney in 2012 and later Mrs. Clinton have a major advantage, mainly in suburban campuses. 2016.

In Michigan, they face a surprisingly strong challenge from Democrat Senator Gary Peters John James, A graduate of West Point, he is considered one of the top Republicans of the cycle. Mr Peters dropped just one percentage point, from 43 per cent to 42 per cent, among voters.

The relatively large undecided voters reflect the low profile of the two candidates. About 20 percent of voters have no opinion on either of them. Mr James’ compatibility ratings rose 45 per cent positive and 35 per cent negative, with 36 per cent positive and 29 per cent negative in the June survey. Part of Mr. Peters’ weakness is that he has so far failed to match Mr. Biden’s heights among non-bit voters, who have not been judged unequally. It remains to be seen whether Mr James, who is black, will eventually make significant inroads into these voters.

The close fight race in Michigan complicates the Democratic way of overthrowing Senate control, which is quite plausible because most Senate Republican incumbents are worse than the president in surveys. However, this is a Democrat worse than Mr. Biden, and the Republican victory in Michigan will force the Democrats to win. Mr Trump took control of the Senate in 2016, winning as comfortably as Iowa or Montana. .

The referendum has been very consistent this year through the pandemic, financial crisis and social unrest. Surveys of Wisconsin and Michigan were conducted during another turbulent week in the campaign, and they gave little indication that any news worked in favor of the president.