Despite a tough campaign, the CAQ has narrowed its decline and could even win new seats tomorrow. With the PQ’s rise confirmed, three-way fights will blur the portrait of the electoral map in both Montreal and Quebec.
• Also Read: Quebec 2022 | Campaign Diary: Week 5
• Also Read: Quebec 2022: Consult our voter guide
Since Francois Legault began criss-crossing Quebec to meet voters, the CAQ has seen a 4% drop in voting intentions.
By contrast, the PQ gained 6% of intentions after the start of the election campaign.
The remaining three parties left for the status quo: in the end, their scores did not budge despite efforts to woo voters.
The CAQ leader, however, appears to have succeeded in consolidating his support this week, with a slight increase of 1% according to the final Leger poll ahead of tomorrow’s election.
The same cannot be said about QS who lost two points in a few days.
Despite a similar score to 2018 (the party won 37.4%), the CAQ could win more seats this year due to the split of votes.
“The funny thing is that the disinformation campaign produces better results than last time,” said pollster Jean-Marc Léger.
“One-on-one wasn’t the same,” he said of the two men’s struggles in the past.
Controversial statements
A Léger Polaroid shows that this week’s controversial statements on immigration have not harmed CAQ troops.
“It didn’t hurt, but it excited the Quebec Liberal Party,” which won a point, Mr. Léger underlined.
In addition, 25% of CAQ voters voted early before the words of Mr. Legault and Jean Boulet.
But this year, the presence of five parties and the three-way fight in many constituencies have made the results uncertain.
“In each region, two or three counties are tight,” observes Jean-Marc Léger. Fourteen seats were hotly contested in the Montreal region, while he was projected against five in Quebec and Chaudière-Appalaches.
“Usually, we know who’s going to win in these counties before election night starts,” he said to explain the uncertainty hanging over the moment.
The PQ’s rise will add a layer of excitement to the Greater Quebec City region tomorrow evening. The PQ gains 19% of voting intentions there, neck and neck with the QS and PCQ, losing 4% of support there.
This is mainly thanks to the good performance of PQ leader Paul Saint-Pierre Plamondon, who led the best campaign according to 31% of respondents.
Best promotion
Paul St-Pierre Plamondon took first place.
Who are the leaders who have campaigned so far?
the date 1er October 2022
QP
Paul St. Pierre
Plamondon
QS
Gabriel
Nadeau DuBois
CAQ
Francis
Legault
PCQ
Eric
Duhaim
QLP
Dominica
English
DK / Rejection: 20%
See you tomorrow night
Tomorrow evening, we will also see the fate of chefs Dominique Anglade, Paul Saint-Pierre Plamondon and Eric Duhaime, whose success is not certain in their own counties.
“This will be something we will see throughout the evening. It will be strong in all three counties,” explained Jean-Marc Léger.
► Anyone using the data from this opinion poll should note that it is a leger-News magazine-TVA-QUB.
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