Commitments at COP26 | Warming forecasts can be very promising

According to the latest UN estimates, despite the new commitments to 2030 announced before and during the COP26 climate summit, the world is still moving away from its targets of 2.7 ° C “catastrophic” warming by the end of the century. The Paris Agreement stipulates that, if possible, +1.5 ° C should be kept below +2 ° C, compared to the pre-industrial era.

According to a study published Monday in the journal, the apparent accuracy of these estimates is misleading. Natural climate change, Many authors have also been involved in the development of the UN assessment they question.

Ida Sognes, lead author from the Center, commented that due to the ‘misleading accuracy’ of the statements made during COP26 in Glasgow, ‘countries may think they are making progress when the reverse is true’. CICERO Research Center in Oslo.

Most climate estimates are based on models starting from the desired final temperature for 2100 – +1.5 ° C or +2 ° C – and looking back to determine which levers are needed to achieve it by adjusting variables such as usage. Development of coal or renewable resources.

But “our study is a ‘reference’,” said Glenn Peters, a researcher at CICERO. “We will model where existing policies will take us and see where we are.”

Seven climate sample groups have used this method to estimate the commitments of 20 or more signatories to the Paris Agreement for 2030. As a result, estimates range from +2.2 C to +2.9 C.

However if these figures are not too far from the UN, the researchers will indicate their accuracy.

Many studies on the effects of global warming have likened it to a worst case scenario in which emissions continue to rise without slowing down, which is the most promising scenario leading to global warming at +1.5 C. Reality certainly lies between these two extremes.