How the Institute Pasteur sees the rest of the epidemic

Now we know. This Thursday, the President of the Republic unveiled his deconfinition plans in an interview with a regional daily. The reopening of the country takes place in four stages, each time, gradually unfolding.

By Monday, May 3, travel restrictions between regions will be lifted and no daytime travel certification is required. On May 19, the curfew is adjourned until 9pm, with the authority to open bars and cafes, shops and terraces of culture in honor of certain gauges. June 3 marks the start of an additional reop and the opportunity to welcome the wider public, especially in sports organizations, and to change the curfew to 11pm. Finally, from June 30, it is the end of the curfew and the full reopening of various sectors. All of these actions are conditional on the infectious condition in each department.

Hold together. To find ourselves. pic.twitter.com/AQms1lcqRY

– Elysee (ly Elysee) April 29, 2021

Gradual lifting of restrictions will give more time for vaccine progress

In an attempt to gain an overview of the evolution of the epidemic situation in the coming weeks and months, the Pasteur Institute unveiled several scenarios established using mathematical modeling. “These estimates take into account the increase in transmissibility and the risk of hospitalization associated with variant B.1.1.7. (English, editor’s note), As well as the effect of the weather on transmission”, ClarifiedInstitute. The effects of current actions and the progress of the vaccine are also criteria included in the calculation.

Their baseline illustration “The B.1.1.7 variant can transmit 60% more than the historical virus [que] Breaking actions can lead to a significant reduction in hospitalization”, Specify the researchers. According to them, “Even under optimistic undercurrents of the vaccine rate, a significant increase in hospitalization can be observed if the breaking measures are lifted very quickly on May 15th.. ”

Summer weather is conducive to optimism

According to the Pasteur Institute, the strategy adopted by the government will help prevent the spread of a new epidemic. Gradually lifting the limits, this is the strategy that Emmanuel Macron unveiled on Thursday, “To delay the onset of infection re-emergence as the vaccine campaign progresses, reduce the severity of this recurrence initiation accordingly.The latter also depends on the vaccine and the current dynamic, injecting 545,888 doses yesterday – a record – allowing it to be further reduced. What should be allowed ”To significantly reduce the severity of the onset of recurrence of the infection”, Writes the Institute.

Other factors influence this scenario. The British variant, the majority in France, is less contagious in the summer, which is “40% and 60% in the baseline scenario”, Pasteur Institute suggests, leaving room for optimism. “In this case, it is possible to recover from an infection, but with a smaller peak than the third wave”, He believes.