Finding a bit of encouraging news about the planet's climate isn't easy.
As of Wednesday, the World Meteorological Organization told us that, according to climate forecast models, the probability is that the globe's average annual temperature will temporarily exceed the threshold of 1.5°C warming in at least one of the next five years. 80%.
For many experts, there is no doubt that we will one day cross this critical threshold for good, beyond which the risk of crossing tipping points increases. But as the authors of a recent IPCC report point out, it's never too late to turn the tide. A rapid reduction in emissions will not eliminate the problem, but will reduce the effects of climate change in the future.
Can we hope for such a turnaround? Thinking like that is forbidden anymore.
For two centuries, except for periods of two world wars, major economic crises or pandemics, GHG emissions have practically stopped rising. But in recent years, the growth rate of these emissions has slowed, and a large number of industrialized countries are reducing or in the process of limiting their emissions.
It certainly doesn't happen as quickly as it should. But beyond all the alarming news we got this week on the climate, here are some factors that allow some experts to say that GHG emissions will probably stop rising in the near future and begin a long-term decline.
Workers inspect solar panels at the Fishing-Solar Complementary Photovoltaic Power Generation Base in Taizhou, east China's Jiangsu province, on July 12, 2023.
Photo: afp / STRINGER via Getty Images
Has China Reached Emissions Peak?
The news sent shockwaves through climate watchers' circles: After 14 months of continuous growth, China's emissions fell by 3% compared to March 2023, the first time since the end of climate change-related sanctions. Is this anecdotal? It may not be.
My main conclusion is that China's emissions are currently in structural decline, and if the main drivers of this decline continue, emissions are expected to continue to decline.
Finnish researcher Laurie Mylliwirta argues in an analysis (new window) Published on the site Carbon brief At the end of May. He is a co-founder of the Helsinki Clean Air and Energy Research Center and a research associate at the China and Climate Research Institute.Asia Society Policy Institute.
Its analysis is based on industrial data and official data. Can we believe these? With new technologies for measuring emissions, it is increasingly difficult for a country to cut its data completely. And China, for the sake of image, has nevertheless improved its transparency.
From this data, Mr. Mailliwirta concluded that Chinese emissions had plateaued. This is no mean feat: the country is the largest emitter of GHGs on the planet, accounting for nearly a third of global emissions.
Mr. According to Myllyvirta, several factors explain this phenomenon. First, the extraordinary growth of solar and wind energy in China, which is accelerating: Since the beginning of the year, the Chinese have invested 3.7 times more in renewable energy than in fossil fuels.
By 2023, China will deploy as much solar photovoltaic power as the entire world combined. It doubled the number of new solar installations on its territory, quadrupled energy storage capacities, while its wind power additions increased by 66% compared to the previous year.
Power from wind and solar in China accounted for 90% of rising electricity demand in March. The results are encouraging: the share of renewable energies in the Chinese energy base has increased to 36% since the beginning of the year, compared to 32% last year.
This huge surge is likely to reduce the share of fossil fuels in electricity generation, down 4% from last year, but at a time when demand is growing. Renewable energy has become a key driver of Chinese growth, pushing the country even faster.
Another advance is electric vehicles, which now account for 11% of the Chinese automobile fleet and whose position continues to grow, contributing to lower oil demand. In addition, the ongoing slowdown in the construction sector is causing a decline in steel and cement production, the two major GHG emitting sectors.
This is a very encouraging sign given China's heavy weight in terms of global emissions
He said in a recent interview to a newspaper release Lola Vallejo is a special climate advisor at the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations. That, she adds, [l’effet du déploiement des énergies renouvelables] Definitely should be taken with a grain of salt, because we can only confirm this peak in emissions by looking in the rearview mirror in a few years.
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Coal-fired generators at a steel factory in China's Hebei industrial province. The Chinese government has set a deadline of 2030 to reach the peak of carbon dioxide emissions.
Photo: Getty Images / Kevin Frayer
Reducing demand for fossil fuels
News of emissions peaks isn't just coming from China. The trend is seen worldwide.
In his great report (new window) Electricity 2024 In the State of Electricity Consumption and Production on the Planet published last January, the International Energy Agency (IEA) confirmed that despite a steady increase in energy demand, CO2 emissions from electricity production are entering a phase of decline.
And so the decoupling has begun: despite this continuous increase in electricity needs, CO2 emissions produced by electricity are expected to decrease by 2% in 2024, which is expected to continue in the coming years.
According to IEA experts, until 2026 the demand for electricity on the planet will continue to grow by more than 3% per year on average. This demand is largely driven by the growth of emerging economies such as China, India and Southeast Asian countries. . However, global demand for fossil fuels will peak by 2025, the agency said, despite rising electricity demand.
This is good news for the environment.
A phenomenon we see everywhere in industrialized countries, not just in China, due to the increasing position of renewables in the global energy base.
Recent statistics are impressive: In another report (new window) Published Thursday, the International Energy Agency predicts that by 2024, global investment in renewable energy will nearly double the amount spent on fossil fuels.
That's not all. In another publication that caused a sensation at the end of 2023, think tank experts Climate Analytics (new window) It is calculated that there is a 70% chance that global CO2 emissions will decrease by 2023 Are current clean technology growth trends continuing and progress being made to reduce non-CO2 emissions?
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Experts of Climate Analytics A particular focus is on reducing methane emissions, which come mostly from leaks in the oil and gas production process. Unlike CO2 emissions, it is technically easier to contain methane emissions by sealing leaks. And the effects are felt more quickly. Methane is unique in that its molecules have a very short lifetime, 10 to 15 years. If we stopped emitting methane completely tomorrow morning, the molecules in the atmosphere would only have a maximum effect on warming during this short period, not much more. For anyone looking to make a quick impact on the climate, this is a godsend.
Climate Analytics If all this happens, and the strong growth of renewable energy continues, demand for fossil fuels will soon plateau and begin to decline: for coal, the ceiling will be reached in 2023, while gas will peak in 2024. and oil in 2025.
Mini electric vehicles are parked in a line near a mural depicting electric cars in Liuzhou, south China's Guangxi province.
Photo: dpa / JADE GAO via Getty Images
The test of time
These different predictions, which almost all point in the same direction, must be confirmed precisely by actual measurements. The test of time will give us real answers, as some uncertainties persist.
As for China, for example, which may break all records for investment and deployment of renewables, it still gets about two-thirds of its energy from coal. However, conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East are proof that gas and oil flows can be disrupted by geopolitical tensions. In the same vein, drought problems can destabilize hydropower resources. In such a case, coal becomes a refuge for China to ensure a certain energy security.
On the other hand, even though industrialized countries such as the United States, France, and Germany have all recorded emissions declines in 2023 and seem to have begun a structural reduction in their GHG emissions, they are not entirely immune to upheavals. Change energy patterns. This is without mentioning the steady increase in emissions in emerging economies, such as India, Brazil and Indonesia, which are taking up more and more space.
Reducing emissions is ultimately only the first step, as the ultimate goal in the medium term is to cut emissions even deeper by 2030, which scientists say is necessary to avoid a catastrophic upheaval.
The road ahead is fraught with obstacles, but this new data represents an encouraging change in trend.
Such a tipping point could be a major turning point in the dynamics of climate action on the planet. This is proof that political decisions have real impact.
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