Weather Emergency | It is still possible to limit the heating to 2 C

Eric-Pierre Champagne
Press

2 C: Yes, but

“Here we show global warming [par rapport aux niveaux préindustriels] All conditional and unconditional commitments can be kept below 2 C if fully and on time implemented. This is the main conclusion of a study published on Wednesday Nature By an international team of scientists. This new study offers a slightly more positive outlook than final estimates suggesting warming by more than 2 by 2100. But remember that it takes huge efforts to get there. Concrete policies and measures are ‘urgently needed’ to drive emissions reductions [de CO₂] In this decade. ”

“Some good news”

“We have a lot more to do to combat climate change, but for once there is good news,” Zke Hausfather wrote on his Twitter account on Wednesday. This eminent scientist also contributes to the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), commenting on this new study Warming may be limited to just under 2 degrees due to the fulfillment of the promises of the Paris Agreement. In an analysis also published on Wednesday Nature, On the strict condition that “short-term policies support the commitments made by governments”, he agrees with his colleagues’ calculations. Housefather said. “Long-term goals should be considered questionable if they are not supported by short-term commitments to keep countries on track to achieve those goals in the coming decade,” he said.

Significance of the Paris Agreement

“It shows [l’accord de] Paris is important. It has been successful in raising climate ambitions, “said Damon Mathews, a professor of geography, urban planning and environment, and chair of research at Climatology and Sustainability at Concordia University. Recalled that 10 years ago, we were far from the goal [de l’accord de Paris], We are moving forward. Who knows where we will be in 10 years? “, He began.

Exceeds 1.5 C range?

Can we control warming up to 1.5 కంటే above pre-industrial level? “Our opportunities are getting thinner and thinner,” Mr. Matthews recently agreed Press. The opinion of the Czech house father is the same. “Unfortunately, the Paris Agreement target did not reach 1.5 ° C,” he published in his analysis. Nature. Global temperatures have already risen by about 1.2 C since the late 1800s, and meteorologists estimate that the current commitment is likely to be less than 1. .5 ° C this century, only 6 to 10%. The IPCC in its latest report has indicated that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will reach their peak by 2025 and will be significantly reduced thereafter to limit warming to 1.5. Most scientists believe that achieving this goal is practically impossible.

Many predictions must come true

The peer-reviewed study was conducted by a team of researchers from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the UN and the University of Melbourne, led by climatologist Malte Mineshausen. In particular, the scientists analyzed inventory data and formally submitted targets from 196 countries from the Paris Agreement after COP26 on November 11, 2021. They also take into account emissions from maritime transport and international aviation. Glenn Peters, a meteorologist with the Global Carbon Project, told the Agency France-Presse that Mineshausen’s analysis “looks good and solid, but still has assumptions that may be important.” The biggest of these predictions is that countries will achieve most of the promised carbon neutrality by 2050, but 10 or 20 years from now for China and India, he said. “It’s very easy to make commitments to 2050, it’s hard to back them up with short – term interventions,” Peters said, before five or six elections take place in most countries.