Climate Crisis | Global warming will reach 1.5 C by 2025

The World Meteorological Organization warns that the Earth’s average temperature rise is likely to reach 1.5 ° C in five years. This crucial limitation has the lower limit of the Paris Agreement, which should not be exceeded to prevent uncontrollable effects of climate change.

Jean-Thomas Leville
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The risk has doubled

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said in a new bulletin on weather published on Thursday that the “average annual global temperature” is likely to rise by 1.5 ° C temporarily by 2025, now 40% and that the risk will increase over time. The probability has doubled compared to last year’s, according to a United Nations special agency.

Heat Heat Record

The risk of breaking a new thermal record is very high. The WMO estimates that “at least one year between 2021 and 2025 will be the hottest on record, thereby eliminating 2016”. As global mercury rises by 1.2 మూడు C compared to the pre-industrial era, 2020 will be one of the three hottest years on record, the company recalls. The WMO estimates that the next five-year average will be “at least 1 ° C” higher than in the pre-industrial era.

More storms

The World Meteorological Organization predicts that rising temperatures will cause more rainfall in the Sahel and higher elevations. This leads to an increase in the number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. The Canadian Hurricane Center announced last week that it will be more active than the average hurricane season in 2021. In general, the severe weather phenomenon is expected to increase, according to the WMO, “Food Security, Health, the Environment and Sustainable Development”.

Faster and faster

Global warming is accelerating, with the World Meteorological Organization predicting that all parts of the world will experience more than the “recent values” of the period 1981-2010 over the next five years, some in the South Seas and some in the North Atlantic. In the northern hemisphere, the temperature rise over larger areas may be 0.8 C compared to recent times. The Arctic is warming more than twice the global average, according to the WMO.

The “lower limit” of the Paris Agreement

“This study shows, with great scientific credibility, that we are reaching the bottom level of the Paris Agreement measurable and ruthless,” said WMO Secretary-General Petrie Talas. The agreement, signed in 2015, aims to keep global temperatures below 2 ° C and as close as possible to 1.5 ° C by the end of the century. The organization recalls that the commitments of the international community are “far less than what is currently needed to achieve this goal”.

In line with the changing climate

Thalas said WMO research has highlighted the need to adapt to climate change. In particular, he stressed the importance of sophisticated early warning services, which only half the countries have, in mitigating the negative effects of extreme events. “Not only do we recognize that early warning services are limited, especially in Africa and the island states where weather observations are not severe,” he said.

The “small” effect of the pandemic

The World Meteorological Organization says the global epidemic and control measures will not have a significant impact on global warming in the coming years. This is because a large number of greenhouse gases (GHG) have a much longer lifespan. The WMO explains that emissions fluctuations over the past year have only “small” consequences on the concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere.