Verification: Did Erin O’Toole tell the truth about the state of federal debt? | Verification

According to a background document from the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) for the election campaign, the debt estimate will instead be set at $ 1194 billion this year, an increase of almost 78% compared to 2017. This is a further improvement The budget was introduced in AprilIt is estimated to have a debt of 1234 billion.

Mr.In the next four years, if Justin Trudeau spends the same rate from 2016 to 2019, he will triple Canada’s total debt to $ 1.8 trillion, or almost 90% of GDP by 2025..

This is probably a misleading claim. The PBO indicates that debt will reach $ 1,321 billion at that time, so $ 479 billion less. At 44.2% of GDP, this level of debt remains the same, according to the PBO. Significantly lower At a 1995 record, at 66.6% of GDP.

Conservatives are justifying themselves by applying an average of 6.5% program cost growth from 2022, 2016 to 2019. However, from 2022 to 2025, the increase in budget expenditure will be 2 to 4%.

Projection Gap Heavy

Luke Godbott, chair of research in taxation and public finance at Sherbrook University, wonders about Conservative party expectations. This is the equivalent of two other pandemic debt shocks, he said. It is as large as the projection gap. The massive, especially Canadian economy is improving and faster than expected.

Although they do not take into account election promises, the PBO’s data, according to Mr. Goddard, should be indicative, as they give a picture of the situation during the election call.

In collaboration with Nathalie Lemieux